Beyond the discount.
What brands plan to discount this Q4, the number shoppers say it actually takes, and what brings them back after BFCM.
575+
DTC operators surveyed
700+
consumers surveyed
+10,000
loyalty programs analyzed
Free 49-page PDF
New research · Q4 2026
BEYOND
THE DISCOUNT
What brands and consumers say actually drives Q4 acquisition, loyalty, and repeat purchase.
Nov earns. Jan redeems.
+60%
90-day repeat rate, BFCM buyers
who joined a loyalty program
44%
of brands believe Q4 revenue would fall 15% or more if they stopped discounting.
47%
of consumers say 20 to 25% off is enough to get them to try an unfamiliar brand.
36%
of consumers acquired with a discount come back primarily when another discount appears.
+60%
higher 90-day repeat rate for BFCM first-time buyers who joined a loyalty program.
What's inside
Your Q4 discount strategy, pressure-tested.
01
How deep is deep enough?
Brands have a number in mind. So do shoppers. See how planned acquisition offers compare with the discount consumers say they actually need to try an unfamiliar brand.
02
What happens after the discount?
How many discounted first-time buyers become full-price customers, how many wait for the next deal, and what consumers say gets them to purchase again.
03
What loyalty changes after BFCM
Inside data from 10,766 loyalty programs: how members, reward redeemers, and BFCM buyers behave once the holiday rush ends.
Free 49-page PDF from DTC × Smile.io. No sales call attached.
The Smile.io data layer
What happens after the discount, in the data.
The survey shows what a discounted first purchase trains customers to do. Data from 10,766 active loyalty programs shows what the alternative looks like.
3.1x
customer value of reward redeemers vs customers who never redeem
+72%
customer value of loyalty members vs non-members, median program
+60%
90-day repeat rate for BFCM buyers who join a loyalty program
November's points become January's orders.
Point-earning vs redemption orders, indexed to Oct 2025 = 100. Monthly order counts across 10,766 programs.
Do BFCM buyers come back? The members do.
Repeat purchase within 90 days of a BFCM first purchase, first-time buyers, members vs non-members.
The discount ends with the season. The points outlast it.
This report is for you if…
Fifteen questions to operators, the same ground covered with consumers, and the platform data to settle the gaps between them.
- You're deciding how deep to discount this Q4
- You're wondering how much margin your holiday offers are giving away unnecessarily
- You're acquiring hard during BFCM and need those customers to buy again
- You're trying to make loyalty and rewards pull more weight after the sale ends
- You need a clearer way to tell whether your retention strategy is paying off
Get the full findings, free.
Every survey question, the consumer side of each answer, and the loyalty data for what comes after BFCM.